Important Information
This information is provided for general educational purposes only without regard to your particular investment needs. This material, including any attachments or hyperlinks, should not be taken as investment or tax advice of any kind whatsoever (whether impartial or otherwise) on which you may rely for your investment decisions, nor be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for any investment strategy, product or service. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments in order to determine the appropriateness of any investment discussed herein.
Material authored by any particular Artisan Partners individual or team represents their own views and opinions, which may or may not reflect the views and opinions of Artisan Partners, including its autonomous investment teams or associates. Statements are based on current market conditions and other factors, which are as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. While this information is believed to be reliable, there is no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in the discussion.
All investments are subject to risk, which includes potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This material may reference index or other information that is subject to copyright by its respective service provider, including the following: MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used to create indices or financial products. This report is not approved or produced by MSCI. Frank Russell Company ("Russell") is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell's express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. The herein referenced S&P index ("Index") is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI") and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use. Copyright © 2024 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC ("Dow Jones"). None of S&P DJI, Dow Jones, their affiliates or third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and none shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein. Source ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission. ICE Data Indices, LLC permits use of the ICE BofAML indices and related data on an "as is" basis, makes no warranties regarding same, does not guarantee the suitability, quality, accuracy, timeliness and/or completeness of the ICE BofAML indices or any data included in, related to, or derived therefrom, assumes no liability in connection with the use of the foregoing, and does not sponsor, endorse, or recommend Artisan Partners or any of its products or services.
© 2024 Artisan Partners. All rights reserved.
Democracy’s Blockbuster Year
2024 is expected to be one of the biggest election years on record with more than half of the world’s population planning to go to the polls. This busy election calendar comes at a particularly opportune time as geo-political tensions are running high across the globe. From the outbreak of war in Israel to the on-going war in Ukraine, the coups across west Africa, and all the smaller disputes between - the political process offers citizens the opportunity to turn the tides by prompting political, economic, and social reforms.
While many emerging market countries will be holding elections of their own in 2024, most will also be impacted by the outcome of elections in other countries. In November, the US will vote to elect its next president, 34 senate seats, and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives. The outcome of that election will have important implications on geo-political relations, aid, and global growth across the developed and emerging worlds. Elsewhere, the EU Parliamentary elections in June 2024 will inform the future of EU enlargement and its role in foreign affairs. Rising popularity of the far-right across Europe will likely challenge the EU’s current support for Ukraine, climate change, and immigration policies.
The EMsights team will be closely monitoring the following elections that are expected to dictate the direction of macroeconomic policy changes and governance across the countries we look at:
What will Widodo do: Indonesia General Election (February 2024)
WHO Outgoing president, Jokowi Widodo is ineligible to run for a third term, but has backed his ex-rival, Prabowo Subianto, in a bid to protect his interests. Prabowo is facing off against the PDI-P’s Pranawo and Anies, an independent candidate backed by three parties.
WHAT'S AT STAKE The elections will be the largest single-day election globally. In a bid to protect his interest and influence, Widodo managed to get his son, 36 year old Gibran, to be Prabowo’s running mate, effectively tying his political aspirations to a potential Prabowo administration. Yet, many concerns remain - Prabowo has demonstrated elements of populism and authoritarianism that have made observers uneasy.
EMSIGHTS VIEW We expect the Prabowo-Gibran slate to emerge victorious after two rounds of voting.
The Bukele Sequel: El Salvador General Election (February 2024 / second round in March 2024 if needed)
WHO Nayib Bukele is campaigning for reelection despite the constitution barring presidents from serving a second consecutive term.
WHAT'S AT STAKE After Bukele was given the green light from the Supreme Court to compete, it seems probable Bukele will win. The people of El Salvador will be subject to another five years of a state of emergency and bitcoin headlines.
EMSIGHTS VIEW The 2024 elections are a foregone conclusion, Bukele will remain with a tight grip on power in El Salvador. His high popularity, driven by security success, is the key driver.
Modi’s Last Dance: India General Election (April / May 2024)
WHO Incumbent Prime Minister, Modi, and his ruling BJP are campaigning to be re-elected for a third five-year term.
WHAT'S AT STAKE The focus is on immediate aftermath of what is expected to be Modi’s last campaign - observers are looking to see who his successor would be. The BJP will be looking to increase their voter share in India’s southern states and garner more widespread support for their economic agenda. However, the BJP does not need the southern region, often considered to be the powerhouse of the Indian economy, to win a third consecutive term.
EMSIGHTS VIEW The 2024 elections are viewed as a foregone conclusion, with the BJP expected to form the next government. The key factors behind this are Modi’s popularity and a still disjointed and weak opposition.
Sweet Dreams or a Georgian Nightmare: Georgia Presidential Election (October 2024)
WHO The current party in power, Georgian Dream, has been in power since 2012 and is seeking to keep their majority in parliament for the fourth straight term.
WHAT'S AT STAKE 2020 elections were marked with irregularities and an opposition boycott of the parliamentary process. 2024 elections will show where Georgia stands in terms of democracy and free and fair elections.
EMSIGHTS VIEW Georgian Dream will likely win a majority, maybe even a supermajority in the parliament. The opposition is weak, disjointed, and uncredible.
Debt Restructuring Tango: Ghana General Election (December 2024)
WHO The current party in power, NPP is going against opposition NDC in presidential and parliamentary elections.
WHAT'S AT STAKE Ghana is currently in restructuring talks with official creditors and Eurobond holders. The next government will have to continue this process, as well as deliver the reforms committed under the IMF program.
EMSIGHTS VIEW Opposition NDC will likely win the majority in the parliament. Putting aside policy preferences, this will be better than the current hung parliament.
Elections aren’t the only agenda item the EMsights team is keeping a close eye on in the year to come. IMF meetings in April and October, the 79th session of the UN General Assembly in September, and Kenya’s Eurobond maturity in June are sure to add to what is already slated to be an exciting year.
Contact the Editorial Staff
Have a question or comment? We welcome your feedback. Comments will not be made public, but will be read by a member of our editorial staff.
Thank you for your question or comment.