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When investors compare emerging markets (EM) debt managers, most attention focuses on investment views, including philosophy, country selection and risk measurement. Investors typically pay far less attention to how those views are implemented, even though the gap between an investment decision and its realized outcome is often where costs accumulate or are avoided. It is within this gap that trading capabilities in EM debt can become a meaningful differentiator between managers. 

Recent tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz have once again highlighted the role energy security plays in the global economy. While the events themselves are not reshaping the direction of the energy transition, they do reinforce an increasingly important reality for emerging markets (EM): energy security and energy transition are becoming more intertwined, not less.

Charlie Munger once described certain investment decisions with the phrase: “It seemed like a good idea at the time.” That sentiment feels increasingly relevant in today’s equity market enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (AI).

In this month’s edition, we highlight the sharp inflection in US core capital goods orders—signaling a potential structural uplift in manufacturing—alongside a supportive earnings backdrop for the S&P 500® Index. We also examine evolving market dynamics, from narrowing leadership and rising global power demand to geopolitical shifts in energy markets and spotlight a recent segment featuring perspectives on risk management and disciplined, independent thinking.

The Antero Peak Bulletin is a monthly resource from the Antero Peak Group featuring a “Chart of the Month,” timely market insights from the research team and a curated “Worth a Listen” highlight.

In this month’s edition, we highlight the rising outlook for the S&P 500® Index’s 2026 projected earnings, the constructive market backdrop—from global manufacturing to resilient consumers and robust capital markets activity—and a CEO interview spotlighting how AI is reshaping competitive dynamics.  

In the spirit of continuous improvement, the Antero Peak Group actively reads to further develop perspectives on financial markets and investing, leadership and life experiences. Please see a list of books that have challenged our thinking over the last several years.

When launching an emerging markets (EM) debt fund, one of the most consequential decisions occurs well before the first trade: selecting a global custodian. It is an infrastructure choice that quietly, but decisively, shapes the investable universe—and by extension, a fund’s alpha potential..

In EM debt, custody is not simply a utility. It is the gatekeeper.

The impact of AI in healthcare is often framed as broad disruption, while in practice, the effects are likely to be more selective and uneven. While AI is likely to reshape parts of the industry, the majority of health care value is tied to biology, regulation and physical infrastructure, areas where substitution risk is limited.

Foreign exchange (FX) is often the primary driver of risk and return in emerging markets (EM) debt investing—not a back-office utility or afterthought to bond selection. Yet many managers still leave standing FX instructions with custodians to fund their bond trades, effectively outsourcing one of the most consequential components of the investment process. 

EM FX is structurally different from other asset classes—and that difference matters. The EMsights Capital Group examines how EM debt managers are using FX prime brokerage and clearing to reduce hidden costs, manage counterparty and settlement risk, and improve execution in complex currency markets.